Analysis of reduction in estimated fish numbers between 1999-2007 and 2007-2016

1 Estimated fish numbers have declined since 1999-2007

Table1: Global estimates of wild caught fishes:
Species
group Fishery Year Date
published Tonnage (t) Lower
estimated numbers
(millions) Upper
estimated numbers
(millions) Link
Fishes Wild capture 1999-2007 2010 77,388,322^* 973,971 2,735,579 Link to estimate

Fishes Wild capture 1999-2007 2019 77,575,346^* 982,263 2,745,803 Link to estimate

Fishes Wild capture 2007-2016 2019 76,631,067^* 787,458 2,328,767 Link to estimate

^* Average annual tonnage for years shown

As shown in Table1 above, the number of fishes in recorded annual fish capture, has been estimated to be in the range of 982,263 to 2,745,803 million for the years 1999-2007, which is an update to a previous estimate using revised FAO capture tonnages reported in 2016.
Table1 also shows that fish numbers for 2007-2016 are estimated (using the same method) to be in the range 787,458 to 2,328,767 million which is a reduction of 194,805-417,037 million, or 200 to 400 billion, in the estimated range as compared to the 1999-2007 estimate.

2 Species whose estimated numbers have changed the most since 1999-2007

Table2: Differences in estimated fish capture numbers between the 2007-2016 and 1999-2007 estimates:

Species	Annual capture 2007-2016 (t)	Annual capture change since 1999-2007 (t)	Lower estimated numbers change since 1999-2007 (millions)	Upper estimated numbers change since 1999-2007 (millions)	Lower estimated numbers percent net total change since 1999-2007 %	Upper estimated numbers percent net total change since 1999-2007 %
Anchoveta(=Peruvian anchovy)	5,547,661	-3,192,515	-111,083	-319,252	57	77
Capelin	529,169	-502,337	-10,047	-29,619	5	7
Japanese anchovy	1,290,384	-317,027	-14,410	-15,851	7	4
Sandeels(=Sandlances) nei	289,515	-241,308	-24,131	-24,131	12	6
European anchovy	490,419	-133,357	-3,509	-16,423	2	4
Black and Caspian Sea sprat	61,657	-68,931	-16,031	-22,236	8	5
Sardinellas nei	985,295	170,843	764	25,817	0	-6
Other fish species	67,436,968	3,340,356	-16,358	-15,342	8	4
Total	76,631,067	-944,278	-194,805	-417,037	100	100

The key differences in fish numbers between the 1999-2007 estimate and the 2007-2016 estimate are as follows (see Table2 above):

A reduction in Peruvian anchovy catch accounts is the main reason for this reduction in fish capture numbers. It accounts for respectively 57% and 77% of the overall reduction in the lower and upper estimate between the 1999-2007 and 2007-2016 estimates.
A net reduction in other feed fish species catches is the second main reason for this reduction in fish capture numbers. A net reduction in other feed fish species together account for respectively 35% and 20% of the reduction in the lower and upper estimate.

3 Decline in Peruvian anchovy and other 'feed fish' species since 1999

Catch sizes since 1999 are shown in Table3 below for Peruvian anchovy and the other feed fish species shown in Table 2. These catch sizes are presented as percentages of the 1999 catch size in Table 4.

The declines in catches for Peruvian anchovy may in part be caused by El nino events which cause cyclical changes in the population size of this species.

Table3: FAO Reported Capture tonnages Since 1999 for species shown in table 2:
Year Anchoveta Capelin Japanese anchovy Sandeels nei European anchovy Black and Caspian
Sea sprat Sardinellas nei Total species shown All other fishes Total
1999 8,723,265 904,045 1,674,762 762,248 644,549 292,860 1,069,013 14,070,742 63,609,372 77,680,114

2000 11,276,357 1,484,818 1,563,262 740,852 638,073 242,322 1,044,675 16,990,359 62,171,796 79,162,155

2001 7,213,077 1,667,702 1,651,361 906,406 670,292 142,586 799,843 13,051,267 63,873,473 76,924,740

2002 9,702,614 1,980,885 1,678,869 917,458 690,023 109,471 715,354 15,794,674 61,334,036 77,128,710

2003 6,203,751 1,143,971 1,899,570 341,522 620,194 73,831 664,970 10,947,809 64,096,849 75,044,658

2004 10,679,338 658,192 1,635,825 390,238 683,143 77,547 692,467 14,816,750 64,934,917 79,751,667

2005 10,244,166 751,905 1,486,623 184,454 414,634 91,297 766,535 13,939,614 65,574,259 79,513,873

2006 7,007,157 269,146 1,480,461 300,513 579,955 77,441 761,287 10,475,960 65,809,035 76,284,995

2007 7,611,858 422,893 1,395,963 233,717 673,123 67,940 815,930 11,221,424 65,465,775 76,687,199

2008 7,419,295 254,452 1,265,763 364,041 550,112 60,068 862,460 10,776,191 65,079,308 75,855,499

2009 6,910,467 364,730 1,068,334 368,134 537,571 65,930 1,039,340 10,354,506 65,926,357 76,280,863

2010 4,205,979 506,897 1,199,195 423,209 588,066 63,163 1,066,135 8,052,644 66,682,874 74,735,518

2011 8,319,597 853,449 1,321,662 443,604 607,118 60,392 966,955 12,572,777 66,175,812 78,748,589

2012 4,692,855 992,491 1,291,905 107,577 491,656 52,396 1,017,368 8,646,248 67,205,671 75,851,919

2013 5,674,036 763,948 1,324,504 284,138 407,699 76,264 932,523 9,463,112 67,265,329 76,728,441

2014 3,140,029 282,934 1,395,807 270,401 273,518 50,871 1,020,461 6,434,021 69,787,416 76,221,437

2015 4,310,015 632,093 1,336,218 319,836 432,721 57,441 1,042,801 8,131,125 69,802,586 77,933,711

2016 3,192,476 217,802 1,304,484 80,491 342,609 62,104 1,088,980 6,288,946 70,978,552 77,267,498

Source of production tonnage : FAO FishStat "Capture Production 1950-2016 (Release Date: 15th March 2018)".

Table4: FAO Reported Fish Capture tonnages as percentage of 1999 figure for selected species (based on Table 3 above):Query to show fields from table failed

Species group	Fishery	Year	Date published	Tonnage (t)	Lower estimated numbers (millions)	Upper estimated numbers (millions)	Link
Fishes	Wild capture	1999-2007	2010	77,388,322^*	973,971	2,735,579	Link to estimate
Fishes	Wild capture	1999-2007	2019	77,575,346^*	982,263	2,745,803	Link to estimate
Fishes	Wild capture	2007-2016	2019	76,631,067^*	787,458	2,328,767	Link to estimate

Year	Anchoveta	Capelin	Japanese anchovy	Sandeels nei	European anchovy	Black and Caspian Sea sprat	Sardinellas nei	Total species shown	All other fishes	Total
1999	8,723,265	904,045	1,674,762	762,248	644,549	292,860	1,069,013	14,070,742	63,609,372	77,680,114
2000	11,276,357	1,484,818	1,563,262	740,852	638,073	242,322	1,044,675	16,990,359	62,171,796	79,162,155
2001	7,213,077	1,667,702	1,651,361	906,406	670,292	142,586	799,843	13,051,267	63,873,473	76,924,740
2002	9,702,614	1,980,885	1,678,869	917,458	690,023	109,471	715,354	15,794,674	61,334,036	77,128,710
2003	6,203,751	1,143,971	1,899,570	341,522	620,194	73,831	664,970	10,947,809	64,096,849	75,044,658
2004	10,679,338	658,192	1,635,825	390,238	683,143	77,547	692,467	14,816,750	64,934,917	79,751,667
2005	10,244,166	751,905	1,486,623	184,454	414,634	91,297	766,535	13,939,614	65,574,259	79,513,873
2006	7,007,157	269,146	1,480,461	300,513	579,955	77,441	761,287	10,475,960	65,809,035	76,284,995
2007	7,611,858	422,893	1,395,963	233,717	673,123	67,940	815,930	11,221,424	65,465,775	76,687,199
2008	7,419,295	254,452	1,265,763	364,041	550,112	60,068	862,460	10,776,191	65,079,308	75,855,499
2009	6,910,467	364,730	1,068,334	368,134	537,571	65,930	1,039,340	10,354,506	65,926,357	76,280,863
2010	4,205,979	506,897	1,199,195	423,209	588,066	63,163	1,066,135	8,052,644	66,682,874	74,735,518
2011	8,319,597	853,449	1,321,662	443,604	607,118	60,392	966,955	12,572,777	66,175,812	78,748,589
2012	4,692,855	992,491	1,291,905	107,577	491,656	52,396	1,017,368	8,646,248	67,205,671	75,851,919
2013	5,674,036	763,948	1,324,504	284,138	407,699	76,264	932,523	9,463,112	67,265,329	76,728,441
2014	3,140,029	282,934	1,395,807	270,401	273,518	50,871	1,020,461	6,434,021	69,787,416	76,221,437
2015	4,310,015	632,093	1,336,218	319,836	432,721	57,441	1,042,801	8,131,125	69,802,586	77,933,711
2016	3,192,476	217,802	1,304,484	80,491	342,609	62,104	1,088,980	6,288,946	70,978,552	77,267,498